2008-10-07
(kigou) [ keizai ] igirisu kinyuu kiki
kanshi taishou meigara no roizu TSB to bakure no kabuka ga ton demonaikotoninatterundesuga ...
nannanda ?
HSBC ha daijoubu dana .
ei gin bakureizu ya RBS, ei seifu karano shusshi de koushouchuu (10/7)
ei seifu ha , bakureizu ya roiyaru . banku . obu . sukottorando . gurupu (RBS) nado doukoku no oote ginkou ni sukunakutomo 450 oku pondo ( yaku 7 chou 9500 okuen ) wo chuunyuu suru kanousei gaaru . juutaku ron kanren no sonshitsu de meberi shita ginkou no shihon wo kyouka suru . jijou ni kuwashi i kankeisha 2 nin ga akiraka nishita .
kankeisha ga tokumei wo jouken ni nobe tatokoroniyoruto , daringu ei zaimu sou to ingurando ginkou ( chuuou ginkou ) no kingu sousai ha 6 nichi osoku ni ,RBS no fureddo . guddouin saikou keiei sekininsha (CEO) ya bakureizu no jon . bari CEO ra ginkou kanbu to kaidan shi , shusshi nitsuite kyougi shita .
RBS to HSBC horudeingusu wo fukumu ei gin oote 6 gyou rainen 3 getsumatsu madeni yaku 540 oku pondo no saimu ga kigen wo mukae ru .
RBS mohidoi
tsuiki surukamo
(kigou) [ keizai ] tsugino kinyuu kiki ha nonbanku da
shouken . ginkou no kinyuukikan no kiki ha shoukoujoutai ninatta .
kinyuukikan ha saigo ha FRB ga mamotte kureru .
shikashi , jigyoukai sha hadouyatte mamoru ?
tsugino tagetto ha nonbanku da .
GE , GM , AMEX no kabuka ga kinou 10/6 , saiyasune koushin .
GMAC ha kinou ha yasune koushin shinakattandaga , oyagaisha GM ga saiyasune koushin .
( sankou ) amerika no CP shijou ga koori tsuiteiru ( FIFTH EDITION )
(kigou) [ keizai ] amerika keizai no saigo no bannin ha FRB dehanaku bafetto
saikin no uoren . bafetto no ugoki wo miru tosou omou .
gorudomansakkusu , GE ni shikin tounyuu shitari .
kabunushi ninatteiru ueruzufago ga wakobia wo shitei karakassarattari .
tsumari , bafetto ga amerika keizai no saigo no bannin nandayone .
jaa , bannin ga mamotte iruhazuno kigyou ga tousan shitara ?
toiuwakede , GE ni chuumoku da .
shouken . ginkou no kinyuukikan no kiki ha shoukoujoutai ninatta .
tsugino tagetto ha nonbanku da .
(kigou) [ keizai ] amerika keizai akka no nagare
kinyuu kiki ga shinkouchuu desuga , yoi koramu gaattanode memo
kome keizai , zendaimimon merutodaun no kiken ga -- finansharu . taimuzu ( 2008/2/24 )( gyotaku )
honmono no hikan ronsha
RGE monita no sousetsusha de nyuyoku daigaku sutanbijinesusukuru no nurieru . rubini shi
kinyuu hakyoku heto itaru 12 no suteppu ( sou , jitsuni 12 moarunoda ) ha , kyouju niyoruto ikano toori .
suteppu sono 1 ha , kome shijou saiaku no juutaku fukyou . kyouju niyoruto juutaku kakaku ha piku toki kara 20 ~ 30 % mo geraku shi , yotte setai shisan 4 chou ~6 chou doru soutou ga kie teshimau . 1000 man mono setai ga saimu chouka ni ochiiru tame , ie no kagi wo yuubinbako ni ire tedokoka betsuno shintenchi wo motome ru houga iito kangae ru kazoku ga fue rudarou . suruto juutaku meka ga tsugitsugi to hatan surukotoninaru .
suteppu sono 2 ha , sabupuraimu . ron no sonshitsu kakudai . ima yosoku sareteiru 2500 oku ~ 3000 oku doru wosarani koe ru kibo no sonshitsu da . 2005 ~ 2007 nen ni kuma reta ron no yaku 6 wari ga ( mubou aruiha akushitsu na sokumen ) womotsumonodattato rubini kyouju ha iu . gorudoman . sakkusu ha , ron sonshitsu wo 4000 oku doru to suikei . shikashi juutaku kakaku ga 2 wari ijou mo geraku sureba , sonshitsu hasarani fue ru . sounareba kinyuukikan no yuushi nouryoku ga sokona wareru .
suteppu sono 3 deha , shouken kasa reteinai shouhisha fusai ( kurejittokado , jidousha ron , gakusei ron nado ) ga kyogaku sonshitsu wo dasu . suruto ( shinyou shuushuku ) ha juutaku ron kara , sarani tashutayou na shouhisha shinyou ni hiroga tte iku .
suteppu sono 4 ha , monorain hokengaisha ( kinyuu hoshou senmon no hokengaisha ) no kakuduke hikisage . monorain jigyousha no keiei niha ( AAA ) kakuduke ga hissu daga , kono dankai de ooku no monorain hoken ga ( AAA ) wo ushinau . sokokara tenji te , 1500 oku doru fun no shisan tanpo shouken ( ABS ) ga kiri sage rarerukotoninaru .
suteppu sono 5 ha , shougyou fudousan shijou no yuukai ( merutodaun ) da .
soshite suteppu sono 6 ha , oote chihou ginkou aruiha zenkoku ginkou no hatan .
suteppu sono 7 deha , mubou na rebarejjido . baiauto ( LBO ) ga tsugitsugi to kyogaku sonshitsu wo dasu . koushita ron ga ima deha nanzen oku doru fun mo , kinyuukikan no choubojou nitamatteirunoda .
suteppu sono 8 ha , kigyou niyoru saimu fubarai no renzoku . heikinteki nimiruto , kome kigyou no joutai hamatomodaga , iwayuru ( fattoteru ) no buatsui bunpu bubun niatehamaru ooku no kigyou ga , hikui shuuekisei to ooki na saimu wo dae teiru . koushita kigyou no saimu fubarai ga tate tsuduke ba , koushita kigyou no saimu wo hoshou suru kurejitto . deforuto . suwappu ( CDS , tai tsuki saiken no shinyou risuku wo hoshou shitemorau opushon torihiki ) no sonshitsu ga hiroga ru . sonshitsu hitai ha 2500 oku doru ni noboru osore gaari , saimu hoshou kaisha noikutsukaga hatan surukamoshirenai .
suteppu sono 9 ha ,( kage no kinyuu shisutemu ) no merutodaun . hejjifando ya toushi bikuru ( SIV ) nadoga chuuou ginkou karano kashi duke wo chokusetsu uke rarenaidakeni , sono kukyou ni taiou surunohaissou konnan ninaru .
suteppu sono 10 ha , kabuka nosaranaru geraku . hejjifando , majinkoru , sora uri no hatan ga tsugitsugi to rensa suru kabuka geraku wo hikioko shikanenai .
suteppu sono 11 ha , kinyuu shijou noachikochide ryuudousei ga kokatsu . koreniha ginkoukan mo kawase shijou mo fukumu . shiharai nouryoku nitsuiteno kenen akka gakono haikei tonaru .
soshite suteppu sono 12 deha ,( sonshitsu , genshi , shinyou shuushuku , kyousei hasan , shisan no nageuri nadoniyoru , hidoi akujunkan ) gaokirutoiu .
ijou ga shijou merutodaun he itaru 12 suteppu da . rubini kyouju ha ( kinyuu shisutemu niokeru sou sonshitsu hitai ha kei 1 chou doru wo koe , fukyou hasarani akka shi nagabiku darou ) to iu . soshitemasanikono ( akumu no shinario ) ga , ben . bananki gichou wohajime kome renpou junbi rijikai ( FRB ) no kanbu wo fumin ni oikon deirunodato . mou nannen nimowatatte kikikan wo juubun ni dai tekonakatta FRB ga konnen ninatte , kinri wo 200 beshisupointo mo hikisage ta riyuu ga , masanikorede setsumei dekirutoiumonoda . koreha kinyuu merutodaun ni sonae ta hoken nanoda .
( ryaku )
FRB hakono kiken wo mizen ni fusege runodarouka ? rubini kyouju ha betsuno kiji de muri dato shuchou shi , sono riyuu wo 8 tsu age teiru ( hontou ni risuto tsukuri ga suki na nin da ).8 tsuno riyuu wo temijika ni setsumeisu ruto ,
(1) beikoku no kinyuu kanwa ha , doru ya infure no kiken wo tomonau
(2) sekkyokutekina kinyuu kanwa ga taiou dekirunoha hi ryuudousei nomide , hasan wo kyuusai hadekinai
(3) monorain hokengaisha ha shinyou kakuduke wo sage rare , soregahidoi kekka nitsunagarudarou
(4) zentai no sonshitsu ha ooki sugite , seifu kei fando ( SWF ) niha taiou shikirenai
(5) juutaku shijou no sonshitsu wo ume runiha kouteki kainyuu ha kibo ga chiisa sugi ru
(6) FRB ha kage no kinyuu shisutemu no mondai niha taiou dekinai
(7) sonshitsu hitai koukai nitsuiteno toumeisei ha hitsuyou de , doujini kisei shisuginaikotomo hitsuyou daga , kinyuu kisei toukyoku ga tekido na baransu womitsukerunoha muzukashii darou
(8) torihiki chuushin no kinyuu shisutemu sonomonoga , shinkoku na kiki niaru
—— toiunoda .
( ryaku )
kyuukyokuteki niha , seifu ha kinyuu kiki wo kaishou suru . soreha tessoku da . furyousaiken wo seifu ga kajou ni katagawari surutoka , infure wo younin surutoka , aruihasono ryouhou niyotte . nippon ha , zaimu shou no hantai wo oshi kitte zensha wo eran da . shikashi nippon ha saiken kuni deatte , kyuusai mono ha nihonseifu no shiharai nouryoku wo kanzen ni shinrai shiteiru . ippou de beikoku ha , saimu kuni nanoda . gaikoku no shinrai wo ijishi nakutehanaranai . soregadekinakunareba , infure niyoru kaiketsusaku no kanousei ga takama ru . naze kin ni onsu 920doru mono takane gatsuiteiruka , koredakede setsumei dekiru .
Nouriel Roubini ( nurieru . rubini kyouju ) ha , kono douga no 40 fun 20 byou kara shutsuen
(kigou) amerika senryaku sekiyu bichiku memo 2008/10 gatsu
teiten kansoku desu
zenkai : amerika senryaku sekiyu bichiku memo 2008/01 gatsu
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
2008 nen 1 gatsu jiten no yotei
08 nen 01 gatsu 190 man bareru
08 nen 02 gatsu 100 man bareru
08 nen 03 gatsu 120 man bareru
08 nen 04 gatsu 150 man bareru
08 nen 05 gatsu 300 man bareru
08 nen 06 gatsu 230 man bareru
08 nen 07 gatsu 210 man bareru
jisseki
08 nen 01 gatsu fumei
08 nen 02 gatsu 50 man bareru
08 nen 03 gatsu 160 man bareru
08 nen 04 gatsu 110 man bareru
08 nen 05 gatsu 280 man bareru
08 nen 06 gatsu 170 man bareru
08 nen 07 gatsu 130 man bareru
08 nen 08 gatsu 0 man bareru
08 nen 09 gatsu 480 man bareru houshutsu ( Hurricane Gustav/Ike Exchange barrels )
2008 nen 10 gatsu honjitsu jiten no yotei
08 nen 11 gatsu 0 man bareru
08 nen 12 gatsu 0 man bareru
09 nen 01 gatsu 200 man bareru
09 nen 02 gatsu 100 man bareru
09 nen 03 gatsu 150 man bareru
09 nen 04 gatsu 120 man bareru
09 nen 05 gatsu 150 man bareru
(kigou) [ keizai ] kabuka hanpatsu he
genzai 10/7 souchou
kinou no watashi ha ( ashita kara keizai ha mechakucha ninatte sekai kyoukou ka ?) to hijouni hikanteki deatta .
shinriteki ni , in no kyoku .
tsuyoki ha no daihyoukaku Jim Cramer ga NY10/6 asa no bangumi ( TODAY ) no naka de uri suishou hatsugen .
( neta . omake / nikoniko douga )
nikkeiheikin yosou no shitane nihobo toutatsu .
kazu ha 10/6 madeno nikkeiheikin kabuka chato
NY jikan 10/6 no shikago nikkeiheikin sakimono no owarine ha 10095 en datta .
10/6 no NY dau ga saga ttanode , kyou 10/7 no nikkeiheikin mo saisho ha ooki ku saga rudarouga , sono nochi ha hanpatsu suruto yosou suru .
nikkeiheikin wo yosou suru ( 08/1/22 entori )
shitane ha 9500 en ~ 10100 en no atari desune .
jikiteki nimosorosoro
chouki kinri wo yosou suru . sono 2 (08/2/10)
2003 toshishita atai ga 8/8 deshitakara , zorome de 10/10 deshouka .
VIX mo 58.24 ni . 9/28 takane 48.40 wo koushin .
( watashi ha VIX60 mokuhyou ( 9/30 entori )) toshiteitanode mokuhyou nihobo toutatsu .
GMAC10/6 yasune 6.56 ha 10/2 yasune 6.56 wo shitamawara zu . fumi todomaru .
haruyama sanmo chikai iken
shuumatsu no teiten kansoku : zentai kan (2008/10/5)
kinyuu ha souba ni senkou shite kitsui sage wo enji tekitaga , saikin ha souba narani nattekita .
tsumariyaya saga ranakunattekitanoda .
hantai ni , shigen enerugi ha , nen hatsu kono nebari tsuyosa wo ikki ni soushitsu shite dokandokan to saga tte souba ikani ochitte shimatta .
tsuujou no souba saikuru deha , souba no sentousharyou ga aga ru kanousei ga dete kitato handan subeki jiki nanoda .
konna hidoi souba dakara , shinji rarenaito jibun demo kanji teiru .
tada ucchi ya ikenai toiu jiki dato omou noda .
tadashi , mou sukoshi ( sukunakutomo 2 shuukan ) tattekara , nikkeiheikin 9500 en kinpen made , sarani ooki ku geraku surutoha omou .
ginkou he shihon chuunyuu shinaito konponteki niha kaiketsu shinai . jiki daitouryou shuunin madeha muri dehanaika .
mata , shitei , GM , GE gamada katadui teinai . nonbanku no GM ( kogaisha GMAC ga hatan surukamo ) to GE gadounarunoka , jigyoukai sha ni taishi te FRB ha shikin yuuduu dekirunoka , toiu mondai gaaru .
sarani , kinyuukikan nonakadeha AMEX dakega honjitsu yasune koushin shi , 2002 nen irai no yasune .
tsumari , kurejittokado gayabakunattekitatoiukoto .
shouhi gentai moaruga , kadoron no shiharai entai ga ooki ku eikyou shiteirudarou .
sono ron saimu shouken mo shouhin toshite sekaijuu no kinyuukikan ga katte isoude , korekara omote ni dete kuruto omou .
gorudoman . sakkusu - sekaisaikyou no toushi ginkou 
Richard Wagner: Rienzi